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The good guys have guns: a statistical analysis of the arguments for deregulating firearm ownership

Butler, Nicholas (2018) The good guys have guns: a statistical analysis of the arguments for deregulating firearm ownership. Masters thesis, Northern Arizona University.

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Abstract

Firearms are a controversial subject in the United States. Recently, firearm deaths (per year) have surpassed automotive deaths, and deserves increased academic scrutiny. The question I examine here is; Does a good guy with a gun stop the bad guy? I utilize a time-series (ARIMA) analytical approach to analyze the effects of removing state-level firearm control on subsequent violent crime, firearm suicide, firearm homicide and overall firearm death within those states from 2004-2014. Data were aggregated from multiple sources, including the Center for Disease Control, the Uniform Crime Report, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Five states were selected, four states that had legislative change between 2004-2014, and one state with no legislative changes, to create twenty ARIMA models. Four national-level regression models (n = 479) were created to analyze the overall effect of firearm control on violent crime, firearm suicide, firearm homicide and overall firearm death. The national-level models suggest that firearm control is moderately effective in preventing suicide and overall death, but the results for firearm homicide and violent crime were inconclusive. This study concludes that, based on the evidence from all 24 models, states that have passed gun legislation to increase the prevalence of “the good guy with a gun” have not achieved any noticeable effect in deterring or preventing the bad guy.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Publisher’s Statement: © Copyright is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the Cline Library, Northern Arizona University. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Keywords: Gun Control; Firearms; NRA; Time-Series
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare
NAU Depositing Author Academic Status: Student
Department/Unit: College of Social and Behavioral Science > Criminology and Criminal Justice
Date Deposited: 26 Apr 2021 19:54
URI: http://openknowledge.nau.edu/id/eprint/5408

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