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One−dimensional energy balance ocean model with application to environmental impact of climate change due to global warming

Kirsanova, Natalya (2018) One−dimensional energy balance ocean model with application to environmental impact of climate change due to global warming. Masters thesis, Northern Arizona University.

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The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report on climate change presents some conclusions expressed with “high degree of confidence” regarding changes in the climate system. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal …”, and the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases caused the rise in ocean temperatures and consequently the rise in sea levels. “Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m” [IPCC, 2013]. According to models and alternative scenarios considered [IPCC, 2013] “thermal expansion accounts for 30 to 55% of 21st century global mean sea level rise” and melting of “glaciers for 15 to 35%”. The sea level rise is being considered a predominant effect adverse to the sustainable human life on earth mainly because of the threat of flooding of coastal cities and islands [IPCC, 2013], [OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2050, 2012]. There have been different types of models that were developed to evaluate and predict the sea level rise [IPCC, 2013]. All these models use as input the radiation and heat fluxes occurring at the water surface. The latter include prediction of atmospheric radiation that is estimated by other models. The present research describes a one-cell ocean model with using existing data of past sea level measurements as input and producing the net amount of heat flux into the ocean as output. Therefore, the model can evaluate the radiation forcing indirectly, via the known values of measured sea levels. Thus, this is an inverse problem type of model that can provide a means of validation of the radiation forcing, the latter being a result of a more complicated modeling.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Publisher’s Statement: © Copyright is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the Cline Library, Northern Arizona University. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy Balance; Global Warming; Ocean Model; Sea Level Change; Thermal expansion
Subjects: T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
NAU Depositing Author Academic Status: Student
Department/Unit: Graduate College > Theses and Dissertations
College of Engineering, Informatics, and Applied Sciences > Mechanical Engineering
Date Deposited: 05 May 2021 20:10
URI: http://openknowledge.nau.edu/id/eprint/5445

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