Predicting archaeological site impacts from wildfire and prescribed burning on the Coconino national forest

Fife, Justice (2023) Predicting archaeological site impacts from wildfire and prescribed burning on the Coconino national forest. Masters thesis, Northern Arizona University.

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Abstract

Over the past century, wildfires have gotten more severe in the Western United States. This change is due to various factors, including climate change and disruption of established fire regimes, both natural and cultural, by implementing full suppression tactics as a management strategy for over 100 years. Consequently, archaeological sites that typically could handle fire with little to no damage might now be destroyed due to high heat and increased burn severity. Current evidence shows a heavy impact on archaeological sites in forest environments due to wildfire. This project intends to apply a model to predict which sites will be impacted by high-fire activity and identify the best sites to thin or implement prescribed fire projects in the Coconino National Forest—using high burn severity as the primary variable. The focus is on analyzing artifacts and features typically ignored for fire sensitivity, focusing on non-flammable materials such as rock, metal, and glass. High burn severity means high heat and increased erosion that can affect archaeological sites. Due to vegetation loss in high burn severity, soil is vulnerable to increased erosion and flooding. The effects of fire vary by artifact type and heat and can range from discoloration in ceramics to obsidian vesiculating, essentially destroying the artifact. If we can predict potential burn severity, we may be able to better mitigate the risks of destruction to cultural resources by implementing prescribed burns or thinning projects around eligible archaeological sites. To accomplish this, a fire severity prediction model called the next-generation fire severity mapping model was overlayed over archaeological site spatial data on the Coconino National Forest, giving a probability value of high severity fire occurring on a site under prescribed fire conditions and extreme wildfire conditions.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Publisher’s Statement:	© Copyright is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the Cline Library, Northern Arizona University. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Keywords:	Antiquities; Wildlfire; Arizona; Coconino National Forest; Historical preservation; Controlled burns
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GN Anthropology
NAU Depositing Author Academic Status:	Student
Department/Unit:	Graduate College > Theses and Dissertations College of Social and Behavioral Science > Anthropology
Date Deposited:	09 Jul 2026 22:10
Last Modified:	09 Jul 2026 22:10
URI:	https://openknowledge.nau.edu/id/eprint/6289

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